Story at USGS:
Overview of the ARkStorm Scenario
Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years.
But wait, that's only 150 years ago? Shouldn't this theoretical megastorm wait until 2362?
Here are some of the projected results:
- Extensive flooding results. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities.
- Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour.
- Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes.
- Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding.
- Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent.
- Agricultural losses and other costs ...brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance.
- Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore.
- Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties.
- Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability.
I hate to say it, but I guess that would put some people to work. In Obamaspeak, it sounds like this ARkSTORM is $725 billion of "shovel-ready" work for a deeply blue state. If Obama controlled the weather, it sounds like exactly what he'd send them a'la Elmer Fudd in
What's Opera Doc.
Oh, except for one little detail.
I saw this
article today and noted the amount of unfunded pension liability for California. Are you sitting down for this? Curiously, it is at ~$700 billion dollars.
Sorry, but those two numbers being so close is just too convenient.
Forgive those of us in the other
56 states, but we're suffering from California Fatigue.
When it rains? DISASTER!!!!!!!!! there's mudslides.
When it doesn't rain? DISASTER!!!!!!!!! there's wildfires.
When the El Nino effect rolls in? DISASTER!!!!!!!!! the wind blows too much and there's wildfires.
When the La Nina effect rolls in? DISASTER!!!!!!!!! the wind blows too much and there's wildfires.
When it's winter? DISASTER!!!!!!!!! it's too cold and there's too much snow.
When it's spring? DISASTER!!!!!!!!! there's flooding because of snow melt.
When it's summer? DISASTER!!!!!!!!! there's smog.
When it's fall? DISASTER!!!!!!!!! the populace gets to vote again.
Not to mention the occasional earthquake, riot, gang activity, and such.
I figure that each and every "crisis" and disaster that Cali faces now will be met by the professional ululators of disaster with wails of pain, misery and torment that can only be relieved by an infusion of federal tax dollars.
Looking back, I wonder why I rooted for James Bond in
A View To A Kill. Maybe I should have instead rooted for Max Zorin.
Oh, by the way, that's Max Zorin fulfilling the very outcome I wrote about in
Fair Warning.